In the intricate world of global trade, Vietnam’s seafood export sector, particularly frozen seafood products, is gearing up for a period of cautious optimism despite lingering market uncertainties and formidable global economic challenges. The Vietnam Aquatic Products Processing and Export Association (VASEP) offers a glimpse into the future of this vibrant industry, suggesting a slight yet hopeful recovery in the first half of 2024, compared to the subdued baseline of 2023.
Vietnam’s Seafood Export Market Poised for Recovery
The latter part of 2023 exhibited promising signs for Vietnam’s frozen seafood products, forecasting a resurgence of export activities to pivotal markets including the United States, the European Union, and South Korea in the early months of 2024. In the face of these opportunities, Vietnamese enterprises are doubling down on efforts to explore and penetrate further into the global aquatic products market, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of the nation’s seafood export sector.
Factors Influencing the 2024 Aquatic Product Market
The road to recovery, however, is fraught with challenges. Li Gui, Media Director at VASEP, underscores the slow pace of the global economic revival and persistent geopolitical concerns, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and unrest in the Middle East, as significant impediments. These factors contribute to escalating transportation and input costs, potentially inciting a fresh wave of inflation and dampening the demand for aquatic products in 2024.
Competitive Landscape and Persistent Challenges
The global shrimp market remains fiercely competitive, with Vietnamese shrimp vying against Ecuador and India regarding price and supply. The oversupply issue, expected to persist into the first half of 2024, forecasts a 4.8% increase in world shrimp production to 5.9 million tons in 2024. Moreover, the shadow of yellow card warnings for illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing looms over the export activities of key segments like scallops, squid, octopus, and sea fish.
Despite these hurdles, a silver lining emerges for Bashar‘s fish exports, contingent upon the reduction of inventory in the US, China, and EU markets. The anticipated boost in Bashar fish export prices, coupled with a rising trend for importing deep-processed and high-value-added Bashar fish products, paints an optimistic future.
Vietnam’s Aquatic Product Exports: A Future Perspective
VASEP‘s forecast for the gradual recovery of the Vietnamese aquatic product export industry by the end of 2024 embodies a spirit of optimism. The anticipated adaptation and market adjustments by Vietnamese enterprises are projected to propel the export value of aquatic products back to the heights of 9.5-10 billion US dollars by 2024. The breakdown expects shrimp exports to hit the 4 billion US dollar mark, Bashar fish aiming for 1.9 billion US dollars, and other aquatic products targeting the range of 3.6-3.8 billion US dollars.
In conclusion, the Vietnamese frozen seafood products sector stands at a pivotal juncture, balancing between hope and challenges as it navigates through the uncertainties of the global economy. The determination of Vietnamese enterprises to adjust, adapt, and innovate holds the key to unlocking the vast potential of the seafood export industry, promising a brighter future amidst the ebb and flow of international trade dynamics.
